Professor of Mathematics

Paata Ivanisvili

pivanisv@uci.edu · x.com/PI010101

Department of Mathematics, University of California, Irvine

Paata Ivanisvili

← Possible new impact sites on Mars

Candidate 35: Elysium Planitia, east of Zunil crater

Strong · roughly 90%

Two CTX close-ups of the same 600 by 600 m of Elysium Planitia, from April 2021 and April 2025, under a similar sun. A cluster of dark blobs at the arrow is present only in the 2025 image.
The same 600 × 600 m in April 2021 and April 2025, under a similar sun. The arrow marks the new cluster. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.

What changed. A cluster of four or five dark blobs within about 120 by 100 m, the largest about 50 m across, appeared on the plains of Elysium Planitia east of Zunil crater, between January 2023 and April 2025. It has the same pattern in April and July 2025, on two orbits.

Why it may be a new impact. Ten earlier images, from 2007 to January 2023, show no cluster, and each of them would have shown it; five were taken under the same sun as the two recent ones. Several separate blobs appearing together are the classic pattern of a meteoroid that broke up in the air.

Location
8.043° N, 169.418° E
Absent
ten images from 21 May 2007 to 28 January 2023
Present
14 April 2025 and 6 July 2025
Size
Four or five dark blobs within about 120 × 100 m, the largest about 50 m across
Confidence
Strong candidate; roughly 90% that it is a new impact.
Caveat
It has been followed for only three months, so a short-lived dark patch made by wind is not excluded, although wind would not usually make a tight cluster of round blobs on ground that did not change from 2007 to 2023. It lies in the area of a catalogue of new impacts near the InSight lander (Bickel et al. 2025) that could not be downloaded, but it formed after the period that catalogue covers. It lies outside every footprint of the high-resolution HiRISE camera. Like every candidate here, it is unconfirmed: see the caveat.
Six CTX images of the same 2 by 2 km patch, from 2014 to 2025. A cluster of dark blobs at the arrow is absent in the four images up to January 2023 and present in April and July 2025.
Six of the twelve CTX images of the same 2 × 2 km patch, 2014 to 2025. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.
A 12 by 12 km CTX view from July 2025 of the plains around the cluster, with a dashed box around the 2 by 2 km patch and an arrow at the cluster.
A 12 × 12 km view from July 2025. The dashed box is the 2 × 2 km patch. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.
The independent check: four columns of the same ground, 2 km wide above and 600 m wide below, with yellow ticks around the cluster. The cluster is missing in the two earlier images, marked BEFORE, and present in the two later images, marked AFTER.
Independent check. A second, deliberately sceptical review downloaded every image again and found that the candidate passes every test. Each column is the same ground, north up, 2 km wide above and 600 m wide below. Columns marked BEFORE are earlier images in which the cluster would have been visible had it been there; those marked AFTER show it. Each image keeps one contrast stretch in both rows, so the close-up cannot create a spot. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.

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