Professor of Mathematics

Paata Ivanisvili

pivanisv@uci.edu · x.com/PI010101

Department of Mathematics, University of California, Irvine

Paata Ivanisvili

← Possible new impact sites on Mars

Candidate 19: Floor of Cassini crater, Arabia Terra

Strong · roughly 65%

Two CTX close-ups of the same 1000 by 1000 m of the floor of Cassini crater, from November 2008 and October 2023, under a similar sun. A very dark round spot at the arrow is present only in the 2023 image.
The same 1000 × 1000 m in November 2008 and October 2023, under a similar sun. The arrow marks the new spot. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.

What changed. A very dark, round spot 80 to 100 m across, with a dark tail about 300 m long pointing south, appeared on the flat floor of Cassini crater between November 2008 and November 2017. The core is still black in 2023 and 2026; the tail has faded.

Why it may be a new impact. Three images from 2008 show nothing there, and a small dark feature just east of the spot is visible in every image, so the 2008 images could have shown it. A round dark core with a tail blown downwind is a common look for a fresh impact on dusty ground, and a wind streak would need an obstacle to form behind, which was not there in 2008.

Location
20.131° N, 34.207° E
Absent
2 April 2008, 24 October 2008 and 21 November 2008
Present
3 November 2017, 21 October 2023 and 8 February 2026
Size
Very dark round core 80 to 100 m across, with a tail about 300 m long that has since faded
Confidence
Strong candidate; roughly 65% that it is a new impact.
Caveat
Arabia Terra is full of dark slope streaks (small dust avalanches), and this could be one with a blunt head. Against that, the crater floor is flat at this scale, the tail narrows away from the core instead of fanning out, and it faded within eight years, while slope streaks usually last decades. Without a HiRISE image or a height map this cannot be settled, so the confidence is lower. It first shows in a 2017 image, so the camera teams may already have it on their unpublished lists; but it lies outside every footprint of the high-resolution HiRISE camera, and the teams normally photograph a new impact with HiRISE within months of noticing it. Like every candidate here, it is unconfirmed: see the caveat.
Five CTX images of the same 2 by 2 km patch of crater floor, from 2008 to 2026. A very dark round spot at the arrow is absent in 2008 and present from 2017 on.
Five of the six CTX images of the same 2 × 2 km patch, 2008 to 2026. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.
A 12 by 12 km CTX view from February 2026 of the floor of Cassini crater around the spot, with a dashed box around the 2 by 2 km patch and an arrow at the spot.
A 12 × 12 km view from February 2026. The dashed box is the 2 × 2 km patch. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.
The independent check: three columns of the same ground, 2 km wide above and 600 m wide below, with yellow ticks around the spot. The spot is missing in the earlier image, marked BEFORE, and present in the two later images, marked AFTER.
Independent check. A second, deliberately sceptical review downloaded every image again and found that the candidate passes every test. Each column is the same ground, north up, 2 km wide above and 600 m wide below. Columns marked BEFORE are earlier images in which the spot would have been visible had it been there; those marked AFTER show it. Each image keeps one contrast stretch in both rows, so the close-up cannot create a spot. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.

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